Climate Change and Energy Technologies

The long time scale of the climate change problem and the inherent nature of the carbon cycle bring important implications for present technology development efforts. Even if major technology improvements are achieved for non-carbon-emitting technologies such as energy-intensity improvements, wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear over the course of the 21^st century, most examinations of potential future greenhouse emissions conclude that additional technology development will be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. The evelopment of an expanded suite of technologies including carbon capture and disposal, hydrogen systems and biotechnology hold the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper examines these technologies in the context of a global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, land-use, economics, and carbon cycle processes.     

Energy use and transport correlation linking personal and travel related energy uses to the urban structure

This paper considers relationships between sustainability objectives, transport, spatial design of the built environment and rational use of energy. Conventional transport modelling, housing supply and energy assessment tools are drawn together to provide a common platform for appraisal of city-wide energy use by stationary and mobile sources. The paper outlines methodologies developed for the city of Belfast, Northern Ireland. The paper concludes by briefly reviewing the effect in terms of mobile and stationary energy consumption and travel behaviour of implementing sustainable policy measures in current and future years within the study area.     

Scale,context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.     

Prenatal diagnosis,fetal pathology,and cytogenetic analysis of mosaic trisomy 14

While true mosaicism occurs in only 0–25 per cent of genetic amniocenteses, nearly 2–5 per cent of amniotic fluid cell cultures contain a second cell line. In the common practice of prenatal diagnosis, an aberrant cell line confined to a single colony is usually disregarded. We present a case of mosaic trisomy 14 which was not detected on initial chromosome analysis. At birth, multiple malformations were apparent. Newborn cytogenetic studies revealed mosaicism [46,XX/46,XX,-14,+i(14q)] with an isochromosome 14 in 37 per cent of lymphocytes. Additional cells from the initial amniotic fluid culture were analysed post-delivery and the isochromosome 14 identified in only one of 12 total colonies. This case illustrates two important lessons in prenatal diagnosis. First, amniotic fluid cell cultures may not accurately reflect the relative distribution of the normal and abnormal cell lines within a mosaic fetus. Second, while it is generally reasonable to disregard mosaicism confined to a single colony, this policy will, on rare occasion, result in diagnostic error. This should be taken into consideration, particularly when dealing with autosomal trisomies potentially compatible with livebirth.     

Prenatal sonographic assessment of early,rapidly growing fetal cervical teratoma

Although malignant transformation of fetal cervical teratoma is extremely rare, perinatal morbidity is high and usually related to the size of the tumour, which may compromise fetal swallowing and subsequently lead to upper airway obstruction. We present a case in which mid-trimester serial sonography demonstrated markedly rapid early growth of a lesion of this type between 17 and 19 weeks' gestation indicating the aggressive nature of this tumour, assisting parental decision to terminate the pregnancy. Histopathology confirmed grade 3 immaturity of the lesion.     

Vitamins,folic acid and neural tube defects: Comments on investigations in the United States

No clear answer concerning whether multivitamin/folate supplementation prevents neural tube defects (NTDs) is provided by three studies in the United States. All these studies are occurrence in nature, no recurrence studies having been conducted. The Atlanta Birth Defects Study is subject to pronounced memory and recall biases, the length between event and interview being as long as 16 years. In a second study (Boston University), objections can be raised to certain aspects of the experimental design, and the claim that 22 per cent of women started vitamins sufficiently early after pregnancy diagnosis to influence NTD formation is suspicious. Our NICHD case control study of 541 women in California and Illinois revealed no evidence for multivitamins or folic acid preventing NTDs. U.S. public policy-makers face difficulties in applying results of recurrence or occurrence studies in high-risk areas to low-risk areas in the U.S.     

Transient division of labor and behavioral specialization in the ant Formica schaufussi

Cooperative prey retrieval in the monomorphic ant Formica schaufussi is carried out by workers that perform functionally distinct roles which persist only for the duration of a single retrieval event. A forager (scout) that locates prey too large to retrieve individually organizes cooperative prey transport by recruiting nestmates (recruits) to assist in retrieval. The scout and recruit roles appear to be determined by whether a worker activates recruitment or is recruited from the nest. Scouts organize recruitment and play a key role in maintaining the cohesion of the retrieval group. If a scout that has initiated group transport is experimentally removed, the recruited workers composing the retrieval group typically abandon the prey and cooperative foraging is terminated. In this context, recruits are unable to function as scouts and reorganize group transport. Individuals marked as recruits in one prey retrieval, however, can switch and act as scouts in subsequent retrievals. Because the roles of individuals persist within but not between retrieval events, the specialization involved in cooperative prey retrieval cannot easily be explained as a response associated with age-related or genetic predispositions. This transient division-of-labor, in which individual roles may persist only for the duration of a single group action, represents a novel type of short-term individual specialization.     

Early prenatal diagnosis of an infratentorial arachnoid cyst: Association with an unbalanced translocation

Arachnoid cysts are an uncommon central nervous system malformation, representing only 1 per cent of all intracranial masses. We report the second-trimester prenatal diagnosis of a posterior fossa arachnoid cyst, associated with an unbalanced X;9 translocation.     

Enhanced twin pregnancy detection within an open neural tube defect and down syndrome screening protocol using free-beta hCG and AFP

We have applied our multimarker approach of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free-beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) for Down syndrome screening to multiple gestations to assess its efficacy for improved detection of twin and triplet pregnancies. This study matched 225 cases of twin pregnancy and 39 cases of triplet pregnancy each with ten singleton pregnancies based on gestational week, race, time to receive sample, time of year of sample, and geographical area. The ratios of the MOM for each group at the tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles were compared by the Wilcoxon test. Risks for twins were calculated using Bayes' rule, the age-related incidence of twins, and the levels of AFP and free-beta hCG. The tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles of free-beta hCG MOMs in twin and triplet cases were 0.85, 1.99, and 4.51, and 1.38, 2.78, and 4.07, respectively. For AFP, the MOMs at these percentiles were 1.26, 1.91, and 2.99, and 2.02, 2.68, and 5.30, respectively. The twin and triplet distributions for each marker were statistically significantly different from the singleton distributions (P<0.0001) and from each other (P=0.0012). At a twin risk cut-off of 1 in 50, 77.4 per cent of all twin gestations can be detected in a second-trimester AFP and free-beta hCG screening protocol with 5.1 per cent of singleton pregnancies falsely identified as at risk for twins. Our dual marker protocol for mid-trimester pregnancy screening combining AFP and free-beta hCG can identify over 77 per cent of twin pregnancies in women less than 35 years of age. This benefit may contribute to an improved outcome of pregnancy by early detection of multiple gestation.